Expected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: Sectoral analysis of the Bulgarian economy

Date created: 30-Mar-2020

The rapid spread of COVID-19 deteriorates the global economic outlook. BCRA is on the opinion that the drastic efforts to contain the virus, combined with the oil prices collapse and high capital markets volatility, has generated a massive shock in many sectors, regions, and markets, which would inevitably escalate into a global recession. The combined effects are unprecedented, and their magnitude is difficult to measure currently.

The present analysis focuses on the structure of the Bulgarian economy and the expected pandemic impact on selected sectors. We believe that the development of the Bulgarian economy and the depth of the crisis largely depends on the duration of social exclusion measures in both the country and the major European economies. We expect freezing of large investment projects and a sharp drop in consumption and exports. Government measures to support business and pan-European coordination to manage the pandemic would be crucial factors for the pace of recovery.

To read the analysis please download the attached file.